Industry Update: New Forecasts Predict Housing Supply Drop Following 2026 Budget

The Latest Industry Data: What It Means for Aspiring Homeowners

On 29 May 2026, Master Builders Australia, the Property Council of Australia, and the Real Estate Institute of Australia (REIA) released independent modelling regarding the impact of the Federal Budget. The findings suggest that current Budget settings may hinder the goal of reaching the National Housing Accord target of 1.2 million new homes by the end of 2029.  

Key Forecasts for the Next Four Years:

• Housing Supply: New home construction is expected to go backwards, with housing supply projected to fall by over 8,700 homes.  

• Rental Market: Rents are forecast to increase by up to $9 per week, contributing to an estimated $3.42 billion rise in the national rent bill.  

• Economic Impact: The modelling anticipates a reduction in GDP of $864 million and a loss of more than 3,800 construction jobs.  

• Revenue vs. Costs: Federal Government revenue is projected to increase by $3.23 billion, an amount comparable to the projected increase in the national rent bill. For someone paying $600 per week in rent, this could mean an additional $142 in annual costs for 2026/27, rising to $477 per year by 2029/30.  

Why Owner-Building Remains a Strategic Path

The independent modelling, commissioned from Qaive and Tulipwood, highlights the negative implications of current policies like capital gains tax and negative gearing changes on housing supply. As major industry bodies call for amendments to the housing policy package, aspiring homeowners are increasingly looking for ways to bypass market volatility.  

Becoming an owner-builder allows you to take direct control of your construction project, helping to contribute to housing supply while managing your own build timeline and budget. In a climate where construction jobs are predicted to fall and supply is constrained, the education and planning provided by the Owner Builder Institute are more essential than ever for those looking to build their own future.